Global warming is commonly linked with rising temperatures and there is a lesser-known possibility that the UK and parts of north-west Europe could actually experience colder weather in the future. Experts warn that this potential outcome is growing and its effects could be significant.
The concern stems from weakening or possible collapse of the ocean currents that bring warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. It keeps places like the UK warmer than other areas at similar latitudes such as Moscow by transferring heat from the ocean to the atmosphere.
However, recent studies suggest that AMOC might be slowing down. There are signs that it has already weakened by around 15% over the past few centuries. One clue is the cooling of a region in the North Atlantic known as the “cold blob” and this could be linked to a slower AMOC.
Experts worry that the trend could accelerate due to climate change and particularly the melting of the Greenland ice sheet as well as increased rainfall. This makes water in the North Atlantic fresher and less likely to sink. This could cause the circulation to slow further or even collapse entirely.
The risk of this happening is uncertain. Some scientists believe that AMOC may weaken in the coming decades but won’t collapse this century. However, recent studies suggest that the possibility of a collapse is increasing and especially if the world continues to warm.
The consequences could be extreme if AMOC were to collapse. Even a gradual weakening could lead to colder winters in the UK and more intense storms. Temperatures in northern Europe could drop significantly and make it feel like northern Norway.
Experts agree that cutting greenhouse gas emissions is key to reducing these risks even though it is hard to predict exactly when or how this might happen. The potential impacts of a weakened or collapsed AMOC could be disastrous if nothing is done.
Q&A
Q: How does AMOC influence the climate of the UK?
A: AMOC helps keep the UK warmer than other places at similar latitudes, like Moscow, by transferring warm ocean water to the atmosphere, which moderates temperatures and prevents the UK from getting as cold as it otherwise would be.
Q: Why is AMOC weakening?
A: AMOC is weakening due to climate change, with factors such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased rainfall making the water in the North Atlantic less salty. Fresher water doesn’t sink as easily, disrupting the circulation.
Q: Could the UK experience colder temperatures due to global warming?
A: While global warming is generally associated with rising temperatures, a weakening or collapse of AMOC could result in colder winters for the UK, with some experts predicting a significant temperature drop if the circulation shuts down completely.
Q: How close are we to a tipping point in AMOC?
A: While it’s uncertain, some scientists suggest that AMOC could reach a tipping point in the coming decades, making its collapse inevitable. However, there is still debate on how soon this might occur and how likely it is within this century.
Q: What are the signs that AMOC is weakening?
A: Indirect evidence of AMOC weakening includes the cooling of a region in the North Atlantic, known as the “cold blob,” and the increased difficulty of the water sinking due to the fresher water caused by melting ice and rainfall.
Q: How should governments prepare for potential climate impacts from AMOC?
A: Governments should consider the risks of AMOC weakening in their climate change planning, ensuring that they have strategies in place to adapt to potential disruptions in weather patterns and infrastructure, much like how countries prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic.
